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Forecasting

Forecasts sealed before the outcome and graded after it. An election forecast here takes no side.

Lula won, Flávio 48.2%Lab #1 · Forecast · Sealed 2026-10-25

I sealed a forecast before Brazil voted. Here it is.

I gave Flávio Bolsonaro an 85 percent chance of winning. Lula won, and Flávio got 48.2 percent of valid votes. The sealed forecast and its grade.