Lab
Everything with a number in it is checkable. Predictions are sealed before the result exists, then graded against what happened. Misses stay on the record.
Lab #1 · Forecast · Sealed 2026-10-25
I sealed a forecast before Brazil voted. Here it is.
85 percent for Flávio Bolsonaro, a median of 51.6 percent of valid votes, and a country split almost exactly in half.
Read it