Track record
Every prediction I seal is listed here, with its grade once the result is in. Misses stay on the list.
| Question | Sealed | P | Outcome | Brier | Market Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro get more than 50% of valid votes in Brazil's 2026 presidential runoff? | 84.6% | Pending | — | — |
Not enough resolved calls to measure skill yet.