Vinarise: Forecasting (en) https://vinarise.com/en/topics/forecasting Forecasts sealed before the outcome and graded after it. An election forecast here takes no side. en In Brazil's last three presidential runoffs, nearly all zero-vote sections were zeros for the PL side https://vinarise.com/en/lab/2026/10/zero-vote-sections-2026-runoff https://vinarise.com/en/lab/2026/10/zero-vote-sections-2026-runoff Thu, 29 Oct 2026 10:49:36 GMT A study found 106 polling sections where Flávio Bolsonaro got no votes in the 2026 runoff. I rebuilt the count from the public files, compared it with 2018 and 2022, and set out what those files can and cannot show. Forecasting I sealed a forecast before Brazil voted. Here it is. https://vinarise.com/en/lab/2026/10/brazil-2026-runoff-forecast https://vinarise.com/en/lab/2026/10/brazil-2026-runoff-forecast Sun, 25 Oct 2026 20:05:00 GMT My model gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 85 percent chance of beating Lula. Picking the favourite was the easy part. Official result, Flávio's share of valid votes: 48.215%. Not useful. The rule required a Brier score below a coin's 0.25 and the result inside the 80% interval. At least one of the two failed. Forecasting World