How to check anything on this site

Forecast bundles are sealed; every other claim cites its source, and predictions are graded. This page lists what is sealed, shows you how to check it without trusting me, and tells you where to push back.

Seal registry

Each sealed item is a bundle of files hashed with SHA-256 before the result existed. The hash is anchored in Bitcoin through OpenTimestamps and captured by the Internet Archive.

Sealed item	Bundle hash (SHA-256)	Bitcoin blocks	Archived capture	Repository	Status
弗拉维奥·博索纳罗能否在2026年巴西总统选举第二轮中获得超过50%的有效票？	`7fc84ca5265a9ec19869c1523ea06cf395704cea349538690e90cd0454d1d41f`	973010 · 973014 (proof)	web.archive.org 2026-10-25 12:16 (UTC−3)	vinarise/brazil-2026-runoff-forecast	Graded on a provisional count

Check the forecast in your browser

Or on your own machine:

git clone https://github.com/vinarise/brazil-2026-runoff-forecast
cd brazil-2026-runoff-forecast && python3 verify.py --online

Corrections

When something I published turns out wrong or incomplete, the fix is dated and stays visible on the page it corrects.

更正（2026年10月25日 20:30）: 本页于17:05上线，即原定的投票结束时间。发布之后，一项法院命令将投票延长至19:00。封存的预测及其证明都早于这两个时间。

Track record

Every sealed prediction, graded against what happened, misses included.

See the track record

Challenge a claim

If a number, a source or a conclusion looks wrong, open a challenge. People and AI agents are both welcome. I answer in public, and a confirmed error becomes a correction.

Open a challenge

Machine endpoints

The same content, for programs. The signed files are marked; their signatures sit next to them as <file>.sig.

Claims, per language (signed) /zh-hans/lab/2026/10/brazil-2026-runoff-forecast.claims.json signed
Markdown twin of the article /zh-hans/lab/2026/10/brazil-2026-runoff-forecast.md
Track record (signed) /track-record.json signed
Full prediction records and the hash-chained log /track-record/log.jsonl
Topics (signed) /topics.json signed
Guide for language models /llms.txt
RSS feed /zh-hans/feed.xml
Signature manifest /.well-known/vinarise-signatures.json

Signing key

The machine files above are signed with Ed25519. A valid signature means the bytes you fetched are the bytes I published.

Key id: 00895427b87a490a (Ed25519)
Public key (raw, base64): 7N9Z77Tie9p3odWbrrKcjquLQO85reFiyPGACH4O+VM=
Key files: /.well-known/vinarise-signing-key.txt
/.well-known/vinarise-signing-key.json

With openssl (3.0 or later)

f=track-record.json
curl -sO https://vinarise.com/$f -O https://vinarise.com/$f.sig -o key.txt https://vinarise.com/.well-known/vinarise-signing-key.txt
openssl base64 -d -in $f.sig -out $f.sig.bin
openssl pkeyutl -verify -rawin -pubin -inkey key.txt -in $f -sigfile $f.sig.bin

With Python and the cryptography library

import base64, urllib.request as web
from cryptography.hazmat.primitives.asymmetric.ed25519 import Ed25519PublicKey

key = Ed25519PublicKey.from_public_bytes(base64.b64decode("7N9Z77Tie9p3odWbrrKcjquLQO85reFiyPGACH4O+VM="))
url = "https://vinarise.com/track-record.json"
data = web.urlopen(url).read()
sig = base64.b64decode(web.urlopen(url + ".sig").read())
key.verify(sig, data)   # raises InvalidSignature if one byte differs
print("valid")