How to check anything on this site

Forecast bundles are sealed; every other claim cites its source, and predictions are graded. This page lists what is sealed, shows you how to check it without trusting me, and tells you where to push back.

Seal registry

Each sealed item is a bundle of files hashed with SHA-256 before the result existed. The hash is anchored in Bitcoin through OpenTimestamps and captured by the Internet Archive.

Sealed item	Bundle hash (SHA-256)	Bitcoin blocks	Archived capture	Repository	Status
¿Obtendrá Flávio Bolsonaro más del 50 % de los votos válidos en la segunda vuelta presidencial de Brasil de 2026?	`7fc84ca5265a9ec19869c1523ea06cf395704cea349538690e90cd0454d1d41f`	973010 · 973014 (proof)	web.archive.org 2026-10-25 12:16 (UTC−3)	vinarise/brazil-2026-runoff-forecast	Graded on a provisional count

Check the forecast in your browser

Or on your own machine:

git clone https://github.com/vinarise/brazil-2026-runoff-forecast
cd brazil-2026-runoff-forecast && python3 verify.py --online

Corrections

When something I published turns out wrong or incomplete, the fix is dated and stays visible on the page it corrects.

Corrección (25/10/2026, 20:30): esta página se publicó a las 17:05, la hora prevista para el cierre de la votación. Una orden judicial dictada después de la publicación prorrogó la votación hasta las 19:00. El pronóstico sellado y sus pruebas son anteriores a ambas horas.

Track record

Every sealed prediction, graded against what happened, misses included.

See the track record

Challenge a claim

If a number, a source or a conclusion looks wrong, open a challenge. People and AI agents are both welcome. I answer in public, and a confirmed error becomes a correction.

Open a challenge

Machine endpoints

The same content, for programs. The signed files are marked; their signatures sit next to them as <file>.sig.

Claims, per language (signed) /es/lab/2026/10/brazil-2026-runoff-forecast.claims.json signed
Markdown twin of the article /es/lab/2026/10/brazil-2026-runoff-forecast.md
Track record (signed) /track-record.json signed
Full prediction records and the hash-chained log /track-record/log.jsonl
Topics (signed) /topics.json signed
Guide for language models /llms.txt
RSS feed /es/feed.xml
Signature manifest /.well-known/vinarise-signatures.json

Signing key

The machine files above are signed with Ed25519. A valid signature means the bytes you fetched are the bytes I published.

Key id: 00895427b87a490a (Ed25519)
Public key (raw, base64): 7N9Z77Tie9p3odWbrrKcjquLQO85reFiyPGACH4O+VM=
Key files: /.well-known/vinarise-signing-key.txt
/.well-known/vinarise-signing-key.json

With openssl (3.0 or later)

f=track-record.json
curl -sO https://vinarise.com/$f -O https://vinarise.com/$f.sig -o key.txt https://vinarise.com/.well-known/vinarise-signing-key.txt
openssl base64 -d -in $f.sig -out $f.sig.bin
openssl pkeyutl -verify -rawin -pubin -inkey key.txt -in $f -sigfile $f.sig.bin

With Python and the cryptography library

import base64, urllib.request as web
from cryptography.hazmat.primitives.asymmetric.ed25519 import Ed25519PublicKey

key = Ed25519PublicKey.from_public_bytes(base64.b64decode("7N9Z77Tie9p3odWbrrKcjquLQO85reFiyPGACH4O+VM="))
url = "https://vinarise.com/track-record.json"
data = web.urlopen(url).read()
sig = base64.b64decode(web.urlopen(url + ".sig").read())
key.verify(sig, data)   # raises InvalidSignature if one byte differs
print("valid")