Vinarise: 预测 (zh-Hans) https://vinarise.com/zh-hans/topics/forecasting 在结果出来前封存、结果出来后评分的预测。选举预测也不站任何一边。 zh-hans In Brazil's last three presidential runoffs, nearly all zero-vote sections were zeros for the PL side https://vinarise.com/zh-hans/lab/2026/10/zero-vote-sections-2026-runoff https://vinarise.com/zh-hans/lab/2026/10/zero-vote-sections-2026-runoff Thu, 29 Oct 2026 10:49:36 GMT A study found 106 polling sections where Flávio Bolsonaro got no votes in the 2026 runoff. I rebuilt the count from the public files, compared it with 2018 and 2022, and set out what those files can and cannot show. 预测 巴西投票之前，我封存了一份预测。就是这份。 https://vinarise.com/zh-hans/lab/2026/10/brazil-2026-runoff-forecast https://vinarise.com/zh-hans/lab/2026/10/brazil-2026-runoff-forecast Sun, 25 Oct 2026 20:05:00 GMT 我的模型给出弗拉维奥·博索纳罗击败卢拉的概率为85%。挑出热门是容易的部分。 官方结果：弗拉维奥的有效票得票率：48.215%. 不算有用。规则要求布里尔分数低于抛硬币的0.25，且结果落在80%区间内。至少有一项未满足。 预测 世界