{
 "meta": {
  "rule": [
   "PRIVACY RULE. No section or polling place is named, located or listed. The smallest unit is the municipality (a city, for votes abroad).",
   "A municipality or city is named only if it has at least 50 apt voters and neither candidate has 0 votes or all the valid votes in it. Others are pooled per state as 'other, pooled'.",
   "No municipal-level file counts zero or near-unanimous sections. Zero sections are published only nationally, by region and by state, and as national place-category totals by two methods (official registers within 1 km, and the text rule), with cells under 10 sections suppressed.",
   "Source: TSE open data, 2026 round 2, President. See SOURCES.md. Built by 08_interactive.py (v2)."
  ],
  "events": {
   "zero": "candidate had 0 votes",
   "share_lt_1pct": "candidate had under 1% of valid votes",
   "votes_le_2": "candidate had 2 votes or fewer"
  },
  "min_valid_votes": "sections included have at least this many valid votes",
  "upper_99_9_exact": "exact 99.9% quantile of the Poisson-binomial sum, sections independent",
  "upper_99_9_normal": "v1 normal approximation, kept for comparison",
  "model_status": "pre-registered, fixed in v2, or added after results",
  "side": {
   "pt": "PT candidate",
   "opp": "the other runoff candidate"
  },
  "caution": "A matching total does not mean a model finds the zero sections. See FINDINGS-v2.md, M1."
 },
 "years": [
  {
   "year": 2018,
   "candidates": {
    "pt": "FERNANDO HADDAD",
    "opp": "JAIR MESSIAS BOLSONARO"
   },
   "rows": [
    {
     "side": "pt",
     "event": "zero",
     "min_valid_votes": 1,
     "model": "B-mun",
     "model_status": "pre-registered",
     "observed": 4,
     "expected": 2.139088,
     "sd": 1.349807,
     "upper_99_9_normal": 6.310305,
     "u1_fires_normal": false,
     "upper_99_9_exact": 7,
     "p_exact_ge_observed": 0.153515,
     "u1_fires_exact": false,
     "obs_over_exp": 1.869956
    },
    {
     "side": "pt",
     "event": "zero",
     "min_valid_votes": 10,
     "model": "B-mun",
     "model_status": "pre-registered",
     "observed": 4,
     "expected": 0.865687,
     "sd": 0.91211,
     "upper_99_9_normal": 3.684319,
     "u1_fires_normal": true,
     "upper_99_9_exact": 5,
     "p_exact_ge_observed": 0.009982,
     "u1_fires_exact": false,
     "obs_over_exp": 4.620607
    },
    {
     "side": "pt",
     "event": "zero",
     "min_valid_votes": 50,
     "model": "B-mun",
     "model_status": "pre-registered",
     "observed": 2,
     "expected": 0.010806,
     "sd": 0.103897,
     "upper_99_9_normal": 0.331873,
     "u1_fires_normal": true,
     "upper_99_9_exact": 1,
     "p_exact_ge_observed": 5.2e-05,
     "u1_fires_exact": true,
     "obs_over_exp": 185.075282
    },
    {
     "side": "pt",
     "event": "share_lt_1pct",
     "min_valid_votes": 1,
     "model": "B-mun",
     "model_status": "pre-registered",
     "observed": 6,
     "expected": 2.139471,
     "sd": 1.349949,
     "upper_99_9_normal": 6.311128,
     "u1_fires_normal": false,
     "upper_99_9_exact": 7,
     "p_exact_ge_observed": 0.01341,
     "u1_fires_exact": false,
     "obs_over_exp": 2.804431
    },
    {
     "side": "pt",
     "event": "share_lt_1pct",
     "min_valid_votes": 10,
     "model": "B-mun",
     "model_status": "pre-registered",
     "observed": 6,
     "expected": 0.866071,
     "sd": 0.91232,
     "upper_99_9_normal": 3.685352,
     "u1_fires_normal": true,
     "upper_99_9_exact": 5,
     "p_exact_ge_observed": 0.000168,
     "u1_fires_exact": true,
     "obs_over_exp": 6.927839
    },
    {
     "side": "pt",
     "event": "share_lt_1pct",
     "min_valid_votes": 50,
     "model": "B-mun",
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     "observed": 4,
     "expected": 0.01119,
     "sd": 0.105728,
     "upper_99_9_normal": 0.337914,
     "u1_fires_normal": true,
     "upper_99_9_exact": 1,
     "p_exact_ge_observed": 0.0,
     "u1_fires_exact": true,
     "obs_over_exp": 357.456821
    },
    {
     "side": "pt",
     "event": "votes_le_2",
     "min_valid_votes": 1,
     "model": "B-mun",
     "model_status": "pre-registered",
     "observed": 27,
     "expected": 21.061002,
     "sd": 3.585348,
     "upper_99_9_normal": 32.140561,
     "u1_fires_normal": false,
     "upper_99_9_exact": 33,
     "p_exact_ge_observed": 0.068035,
     "u1_fires_exact": false,
     "obs_over_exp": 1.28199
    },
    {
     "side": "pt",
     "event": "votes_le_2",
     "min_valid_votes": 10,
     "model": "B-mun",
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     "observed": 23,
     "expected": 14.809493,
     "sd": 3.374222,
     "upper_99_9_normal": 25.236623,
     "u1_fires_normal": false,
     "upper_99_9_exact": 26,
     "p_exact_ge_observed": 0.014876,
     "u1_fires_exact": false,
     "obs_over_exp": 1.553058
    },
    {
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     "event": "votes_le_2",
     "min_valid_votes": 50,
     "model": "B-mun",
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     "observed": 8,
     "expected": 0.469787,
     "sd": 0.676615,
     "upper_99_9_normal": 2.560685,
     "u1_fires_normal": true,
     "upper_99_9_exact": 4,
     "p_exact_ge_observed": 0.0,
     "u1_fires_exact": true,
     "obs_over_exp": 17.028988
    },
    {
     "side": "pt",
     "event": "zero",
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     "model": "B-place",
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     "upper_99_9_normal": 8.378421,
     "u1_fires_normal": false,
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     "u1_fires_normal": false,
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     "obs_over_exp": 2.145838
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     "obs_over_exp": 2.224939
    },
    {
     "side": "pt",
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     "min_valid_votes": 1,
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     "upper_99_9_normal": 9.166003,
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    {
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    {
     "side": "pt",
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     "min_valid_votes": 1,
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     "model_status": "pre-registered, fallback dispersion fixed in v2",
     "observed": 27,
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 ]
}