https://vinarise.com/en/topics/world Countries, elections and events beyond technology. en https://vinarise.com/en/lab/2026/10/brazil-2026-runoff-forecast https://vinarise.com/en/lab/2026/10/brazil-2026-runoff-forecast Sun, 25 Oct 2026 20:05:00 GMT My model gives Flávio Bolsonaro an 85 percent chance of beating Lula. Picking the favourite was the easy part. Official result, Flávio's share of valid votes: 48.23%. Not useful. The rule required a Brier score below a coin's 0.25 and the result inside the 80% interval. At least one of the two failed. Scored against a provisional count. The grade will be redone on the final count. World Policy & law